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Where did the Deer Go?
The Problem: Deer herds have been on a trend of decline in many parts of Ontario since the early 2000s. The natural question is: What happened?
The Cause: Antlerless quotas have been increased almost continuously in many WMUs since the 1990s. For the most part, herds were increasing at this time, and an escalation in antlerless quotas was justified to both increase hunting opportunities and promote natural herd demographics (e.g., number of bucks and does). Early on in the antlerless quota allocation, the system functioned more or less as it should. As herds increased and approached target herd sizes, the allowable harvest increased as well. After severe winters, when populations declined or were stressed, the antlerless quota allocation was curtailed. As a result, a healthy population of deer existed across most of Ontario's core deer range, with densities in agricultural areas likely averaging in a range somewhere between one deer per 10-15 acres of cover habitat (woodlands, creek bottoms, and scrubland), and densities being somewhat lower in more heavily forested areas.
Our tried-and-tested antlerless quota allocation approach was at some point abandoned, and this came at a very high cost. Sometime in the 1990s to early 2000s, antlerless quotas were no longer adjusted to account for stressors on our deer herds. On the contrary, for the most part, WMUs had their antlerless quotas progressively increased, even following very severe winters (the most recent being the 2024-2025 winter). Supplemental (Additional) deer tags have also been progressively rolled out in many of these WMUs. Given the circumstances of our antlerless deer quota allocations, It should be no surprise that many herds have been in decline, especially in the snowbelt regions of Ontario and other areas that experience challenging winter conditions.
Ontario has been managing our deer herds as though we were located in the midwestern US, but Ontario is not Iowa, Illinois, or Ohio. Except for extreme southern Ontario (outside snowbelt regions), deer in our province regularly experience stressful winter conditions. In these more stressful regions, it is exceedingly rare for 6 month old doe fawns to get bred, which removes a significant advantage for population growth. Adult mortality is also much higher. So, outside of the far south in Ontario, our deer herds are highly sensitive to over-hunting.
Our deer hunting community that has been active since the 1990s can attest to the quality of the hunting experience over a roughly a 15-year period (1990s to early 2000s). Deer could be found with regularity in farm-country woodlots, and larger blocks of habitat offered the hunter ample opportunity to enjoy seeing and harvesting deer. Those that are even more seasoned can remember the days when hunters from southern Ontario migrated to the north-woods to deer hunt - in the 1960s-1970s, deer were functionally absent from agricultural regions of Ontario. With the current management approach, the path we are on is one of returning to the herds of the 1960s-70s, not the good ol' days of the 1990s to early 2000s.
What can we do?
Compel the MNR to Return to a Functioning Antlerless Deer Quota Allocation:
The most important thing we can do to restore our herds is to advocate, with a firm and united voice, for our antlerless deer quotas to be used as intended. For some of the hardest hit zones, this could mean a temporary shift to buck-only seasons or a dramatic curtailment of the antlerless quota. Hunters should only tolerate an increase in the antlerless quota if there is sound evidence that the herds can accommodate the increased hunting pressure.
Don't Shoot Antlerless Deer if Herds are Diminished:
Even when deer herds are doing well on a broad scale, every hunter needs to make their own decision on whether to use an antlerless tag on an antlerless deer. If you aren't experiencing a high degree of success finding and seeing deer, don't shoot a doe. That female you don't shoot is likely to survive and help replenish the herd in years to come.
How to Know if Herds are Strained:
Aside from going off of how many deer you see per outing (you should, on average, be seeing deer each day you are hunting), pay attention to the groups of deer you see. If you are mostly just seeing antlerless deer groups composed of a single adult doe and her fawn(s), this is an indication that the herd is being over-hunted. Stable or increasing deer populations will typically have antlerless deer family groups of 4-8 antlerless deer. You can view these groups as they come together from about mid-August until mid-April the following year. These groups include the matriarch mother, her current year fawn(s), and her offspring from previous years. Some of the matriarch's older daughters will also have fawns of their own. If you regularly see groups of does & fawns like this, then at a very local level, your herd is performing quite well. Even then, it's important to pay attention to the surrounding areas. It may be that the specific area you hunt has a healthy population of antlerless deer, but if you do not see the same pattern elsewhere in the local or regional area (say, within a 10km radius of where you hunt), it's in your own self-interest to not shoot a doe. In these situations, every antlerless deer needs to be spared to ensure the best chance of the herd recovering.
Become an Active Member in ODSA
To help our herds recover and for us to return to the bygone good ol' days of deer hunting, we need to be organized and actively involved in restoring our herds. One of the best ways you can do this is by becoming an active member of the ODSA. Together we will advocate for the changes necessary at the government level, and as a member you will get access to the information you need to help enhance your hunting experience in the areas you hunt as well. Good things rarely come without effort - as a group we can combine our efforts to produce real and positive change!